The U.S. mortgage affordability report
It now takes about $87,286 a year to afford the median U.S. home ($403,200 at 6.49%) — roughly $3,556 more than the median household earns.
Data through January 2026 · Source: U.S. Census Bureau (MSPUS, MEHOINUSA646N) & Freddie Mac (MORTGAGE30US) via FRED
The median household is about 4% short of the median home.
At today's price and rate, affording the typical U.S. home takes roughly $87,286 a year under the standard 28% rule. The median household earns about $83,730 (2024) — a gap of $3,556. An affordability index of 95.9 (100 = the median income exactly qualifies) shows how far the typical buyer now sits below the line.
Income needed vs. what households earn
The two lines tracked closely through the 2010s, then split sharply after 2021 as prices and rates rose together — the gap you feel as "unaffordable."
What the numbers show
Housing affordability is a three-body problem: prices, mortgage rates and incomes. When all three move in step, affordability holds. Since 2021 they did not — the median home price climbed while the 30-year rate roughly doubled, and incomes did not keep pace.
The clearest measure is the income needed to afford the median home: the salary at which the principal-and-interest payment (20% down, 30-year loan) lands at 28% of gross income. Today that is about $87,286. The median household earns about $83,730, leaving a shortfall of roughly $3,556.
Our affordability index expresses that as a single number — median income divided by the income required, times 100. Above 100, the typical household comfortably qualifies; below 100, it falls short. The series peaked near 141.4 in 2020 (low rates, recovering prices) and now sits at 95.9.
Affordability index, 2005–2026
Above the dashed line, the median household can afford the median home; below it, they're stretched. The index has spent recent years under 100.
By the numbers
- +26% — the rise in the median home price since 2019.
- $2,037/mo — principal & interest on the median home today, before taxes and insurance.
- 2020 was the most affordable year in the series (index 141.4); 2023 the least (index 84.5).
- $3,556 — how much more the median home now demands than the median household earns.
What would close the gap
Affordability improves when any leg of the triangle moves: lower rates cut the payment, slower price growth lets incomes catch up, or a larger down payment shrinks the loan. You can test each lever for your own situation with the Home Affordability Calculator — or see how a rate change moves the payment in the mortgage calculator.
Methodology & sources
We combine three official series from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED): the U.S. median sales price of houses sold (Census Bureau), median household income (Census Bureau), and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate (Freddie Mac). For each year we assume a 20% down payment, a 30-year loan, and the 28.000000000000004% front-end ratio lenders use, then solve for the income that makes the payment exactly affordable. Median income lags by about a year, so the latest income figure is 2024. Figures are national averages and exclude property taxes and insurance.
Use this data. You're welcome to cite or reproduce these figures and charts with attribution to MortgageLoansCalculator.com. The numbers update automatically as new data is released.
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